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☆ Stock-hungry volatility funds, ‘gamma-heavy' options dealers could buoy US equities
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Options strategists believe market gyrations may stay subdued for some time - potentially smoothing the way for further gains in equities. The S&P 500 is up 19% year-to-date, following a 9% gain in November - its best monthly performance since July 2022. Since the VIX tends to move inversely to stocks, market participants watch it closely as an indicator of investor sentiment and positioning. Among the factors closely watched by market participants are the funds that take their signals from market volatility, selling when volatility picks up and buying when it subsides. History also shows that once volatility expectations become subdued, they can linger at low levels for a while.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Ilya Feygin, Nomura, Charlie McElligott, Brent Kochuba, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald’s, Johnston, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Grant McCool Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Monday, WallachBeth, Nomura Securities, ’, Thomson

☆ Swiss firm Pando becomes 13th filer for spot bitcoin ETF
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Suzanne Mcgee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Dec 4 (Reuters) - Pando Asset AG, a digital asset management firm based in Switzerland, last week became the latest issuer to submit an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to spot bitcoin prices. Pando becomes the 13th company vying for a share of what the cryptocurrency world believes could become a multi-billion dollar product, SEC filings showed. Others range from asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity to more specialized ETF providers like ARK Investments. Pando is a latecomer to the U.S. spot bitcoin race, but already has three other spot crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) on the SIX Swiss Exchange. Its ETF proposal included Bank of New York Mellon as the administrator of the Pando Asset Spot Bitcoin Trust.

Persons: Pando, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: Pando Asset AG, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK Investments, SIX Swiss Exchange, Bank of New York Mellon, Pando isn't, ARK Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Pando, Switzerland, U.S

☆ Bull market in view after S&P 500 hits fresh year-high
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A close above 4,796.56 on the S&P 500 would confirm that the index has been in a bull market since bottoming out on Oct. 12, 2022, by one commonly used definition. By that definition, the bear market that began when the S&P 500 hit its previous record on Jan. 3, 2022 was not particularly painful. The S&P 500 closed down 25.4% at its lowest point, making this the fourth shallowest bear market experienced by the index since 1928, according to data from Yardeni Research. Over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 16% in the three-month period leading up to a bull market. By contrast, the S&P 500 has logged average gains of just 0.2% and 2.0%, in the one-month and three-month period after a bull market is confirmed.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, San Francisco Fed, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: St, REUTERS, Yardeni Research, Reuters, San Francisco, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

[1/2] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 1, 2023. The Pentagon said it was aware of reports regarding attacks on an American warship and commercial vessels in the Red Sea on Sunday, while Yemen's Houthi group claimed drone and missile attacks on two Israeli vessels in the area. Such worries flared after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into southern Israel but subsided in recent weeks. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said a widening conflict could push some investors to take profits on the recent rally in stocks. Signs of an intensifying Middle East conflict could also boost oil prices, which have slumped in recent weeks.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Yemen's, Quincy Krosby, ”, “, Phil Orlando, Federated Hermes, Santa Claus, Orlando, I'm, Krystal Hu, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Hamas, Pentagon, Reuters, LPL, U.S ., Federated, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, American, Israel, United States, Iraq, Iran, Santa

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Tax-loss selling, 'Santa rally' could sway U.S. stocks after November melt-up
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The key catalyst for stocks will likely continue to be the expected trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In September, historically the weakest month for stocks, the S&P 500 fell nearly 5%. The S&P 500 gained nearly 9% gain in November, historically a strong month for the index. Overall, December has been the second-best month for the S&P 500, with the index up an average of 1.54% for the month since 1945, according to CFRA. Many other names have languished: The equal-weighted S&P 500, whose performance is not skewed by big tech and growth stocks, is up around 6% in 2023.

Persons: Mike Segar, Santa Claus, Stocks, We've, Sam Stovall, Claus, Kraft Heinz, BofA, Sameer Samana, Dow, Michael Hartnett, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Research, Investors, LPL, BofA Global Research, PayPal Holdings, CVS Health, Kraft, Wells, Investment Institute, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Coinbase Global, Innovation, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Santa, New York

☆ Resurgent S&P 500 crests new 2023 closing high after roller-coaster year
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The benchmark index closed at 4,594.63, nearly 6 points above its previous closing high for 2023 set in late July. The S&P 500 is up over 19% year-to-date after posting its biggest monthly rise in over a year in November. The S&P 500 reached its previous 2023 closing high on July 31, also spurred in part by excitement over developments in artificial intelligence technology. The megacaps' outperformance has increased their combined weight to well over one-fourth of the entire S&P 500, meaning the stocks' moves have outsized influence on the benchmark index. The S&P 500 currently trades at roughly 19 times forward earnings estimates, compared to a historical average of 15.6 times.

Persons: Mike Segar, Jerome Powell, Stocks, Lewis Krauskopf, Noel Randewich, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Valley Bank, Citigroup, Microsoft, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: Lower Manhattan, New York, U.S

Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, ”, Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Investors flock to US natural gas ETF despite price slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Suzanne Mcgee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Storage tanks and gas-chilling units are seen at Freeport LNG, the second largest exporter of U.S. liquified natural gas, near Freeport, Texas, U.S., February 11, 2023. Reuters/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsDec 1 (Reuters) - Investors have been piling into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to track U.S. natural gas prices, in spite of the commodity's dismal performance in 2023. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund's (UNG) (UNG.P) price, tied to the performance of futures contracts on the commodity, has plunged 60.7% so far this year, falling 27% in November alone. Analysts said the drop in the ETF's price came alongside a fall in the price of natural gas sparked by milder than usual weather across the United States in recent weeks. Natural gas prices fell about 22% in November, the single largest monthly percentage drop since a 40% decline in January.

Persons: Arathy, Stacey Morris, Morris, UNG, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Emelia Organizations: Reuters, Natural, Analysts, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Thomson Locations: Freeport, U.S, Freeport , Texas, United States

Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

The Amplify Online Retail ETF climbed 0.44% and the ProShares Online Retail ETF ended the regular trading session 0.39% higher. The broader VanEck Retail ETF gained 0.02%, and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF was the only one in the group to post declines. The Amplify ETF's gains have been driven by top holdings like Affirm Holdings (AFRM.O), up 11.97% on Monday and 97% so far in 2023. The VanEck Retail ETF's holdings include Costco, (COST.O), which gained 0.6% Monday and is up more than 30% so far this year. For example, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF trades at $63.64, down from its year high of $75.77.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Michael Ashley Schulman, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Exchange, Shoppers, Adobe Digital, Adobe Inc, Adobe, P, Costco, Nasdaq, P Retail, PwC, Deloitte, Running, Thomson, & $ Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead After breathtaking surge, US stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, “, CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Hefty options 'disaster hedges' draw buyers as US stocks extend rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange May 8, 2013. Some 100,000 January call options on the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX) changed hands on Friday, with a strike price of 27. Similarly large positions in January VIX options were opened on Wednesday and Thursday. The recent large trades, however, are more likely hedges on a portfolio of stocks, rather than wagers on a massive equity selloff, options strategists said. The trades are unusually large and make up about 5% of this month's overall trading volume in VIX options, according to Trade Alert data.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Matthew Tym, Cantor Fitzgerald, Tym, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Susquehanna Financial Group, Federal, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead - After breathtaking surge, U.S. stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Rising U.S. government debt and fiscal deficits that have helped lift government bond yields this year will likely become secondary factors for investors, as their focus shifts to economic fundamentals, Citi analysts said. "Our baseline is that over time investors accept these fiscal risks as a fact of life and that ultimately it is not supply and demand that determine Treasury yields but it's more about the fundamentals of the economy," he said. Moody's, which last week lowered its outlook on U.S. credit, expects the government to continue to run wide fiscal deficits due to increased spending and higher debt interest payments. Some Fed officials have also said rising bond yields, which make access to credit more expensive, could be a substitute for increasing interest rates further. "There is going to be an extraction of higher yields from these investors," cautioned Mathai.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Fitch, Moody's, Nathan Sheets, Ray Dalio, Jabaz Mathai, Mathai, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Citi, Office, Associates, CNBC, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Amplify rolls out first SOFR-based ETF for income seekers
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Suzanne Mcgee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Amplify Samsung SOFR ETF , which debuted Wednesday, is the first ETF to track SOFR, the overnight interbank lending rate that has emerged as the U.S. replacement for the now-defunct Libor gauge of overnight borrowing interest costs. The new fund's launch comes amidst a wave of enthusiasm for ultra-short term fixed income ETFs, as yields on products throughout the fixed income spectrum have risen to multi-year highs following an aggressive rate hiking cycle by the Federal Reserve. "It wasn't until this year that rate-driven products became priorities," said Bill Belden, president of Amplify. Flows into money market and ultra-short term products account for about 36% of all inflows into fixed income ETFs this year, though the category represents only 15% of all fixed income ETF assets, according to Matthew Bartolini, head of product research at State Street Global's SPDR Americas ETF division. Belden said that a large institutional investor has provided seed capital of $50 million for the new ETF.

Persons: Yves Herman, Bill Belden, Matthew Bartolini, SOFR, Belden, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Samsung, REUTERS, ETF, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Diegem, Belgium, U.S, Americas

☆ China-linked ETFs draw bullish options bets ahead of Biden-Xi meet
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. Other large China-focused ETFs, including the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI.O), KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.P), also showed upbeat options activity, according to Trade Alert data. "It certainly seems that there is generally bullish positioning ahead of the meeting," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, noting that the positions had been built up over several days. Reuters GraphicsInvestors' nascent enthusiasm for Chinese stocks is at odds with how these ETF's have performed this year. Daniel Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler, said recent bullish options flows into KWEB may be to do with a combination of enthusiasm ahead of the Biden-Xi meeting as well as results from Chinese e-commerce companies JD.com and Alibaba .

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden's, Xi Jinping, Steve Sosnick, Biden, Xi, Sosnick, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, JD.com, Kirsch, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, iShares, KraneShares CSI China Internet, Interactive, Federal, Economic Cooperation, Reuters Graphics Investors, Research, Biden, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, KraneShares, San Francisco, Asia

[1/5] A trader reacts as a screen displays the Fed rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A benign U.S. inflation report is bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve can bring down consumer prices without hurting the economy, a so-called Goldilocks environment that investors believe will benefit stocks and bonds. This does feel like a Goldilocks moment for the entire market.”The data fueled a powerful rally in stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 (.SPX) was up about 2% on the day, on track for its biggest one-day rise since January. Still, some investors believed it was too early to call a victory in the fight against inflation.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Eric Kuby, bearish, “, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, Thomas Hayes, ”, Brian Rose, Jamie Cox, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Davide Barbuscia, Ankika Biswas, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, North Star Investment Management Corp, Thomson Reuters, BofA's Global, Fed, Fund, UBS Global Wealth Management, Harris Financial, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Thomson Reuters United States, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Investors increase holdings of weight-loss drug makers’ shares in Q3 -filings
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Some big investors showed increased appetite for weight-loss drug makers in the third quarter, piling in to shares of Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and Novo Nordisk amid growing demand for their product, securities filings showed on Tuesday. Shares of Eli Lilly rose 14.5% in the third quarter and are up 67% this year. Some investors also bought more American Depositary Receipts of Novo Nordisk, including Fidelity Investments, Lazard Asset Management, T Rowe Price and Soros Fund. Novo Nordisk on Saturday presented data showing that the heart protective benefits of Wegovy are not solely due to weight loss, which could make it easier for healthcare insurance reimbursement in the future. Still, other investors trimmed their exposure to Eli Lilly, such as Wellington Management Group, California Public Employees Retirement System and Bridgewater Associates.

Persons: Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, JPMorgan Chase, Eli Lilly's, Rowe Price, Marshall Wace, LSEG, “ Stocks, ”, Vincent Aita, Carolina Mandl, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Novo, JPMorgan, Vanguard, Sigma, Tiger Global Management, Coatue Management, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, Bank of America, Fidelity Investments, Lazard Asset Management, Soros Fund, Wellington Management Group, California, Bridgewater Associates, Marshall, Renaissance Technologies, Capital Management, Pfizer, Carolina, Thomson Locations: BlackRock, U.S, New York

☆ Asset manager GMO's first ETF will focus on 'quality' companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Suzanne Mcgee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Nicholas Roberts/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 13 (Reuters) - GMO LLC, the asset management firm co-founded by veteran investor Jeremy Grantham, will launch its first exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Wednesday. Holdings in GMO's quality stock-focused mutual funds include companies like Microsoft (MSFT.O), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Apple (AAPL.O). About 22% of all inflows into ETFs this year have been to active ETFs, which represent only 7% of total ETF assets, according to Todd Sohn, an ETF analyst at Strategas. The fund will be managed by Tom Hancock, who has been running a $7.9 billion mutual fund with a similar focus, the GMO Quality III , since 2009. The GMO launch is the second steered to market by the Goldman Sachs ETF Accelerator, which offers asset managers consulting advice on each stage of the launch process.

Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Nicholas Roberts, Johnson, Todd Sohn, Tom Hancock, Goldman Sachs, Hancock, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Pace University, REUTERS, Quality, Holdings, Microsoft, Apple, CFRA Research, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Oxford, New York

☆ Fidelity rolls out suite of new ETFs, slashes fees
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Suzanne Mcgee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 13 (Reuters) - Fidelity launched a group of six new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) Monday and announced sharp reductions on management fees on nearly a third of its total ETF lineup, kicking off what analysts expect to be another strong week for ETF debuts. So far this year, asset managers have launched 419 ETFs, according to Morningstar Direct, taking 2023 a step closer toward breaking the 2021 record of 475 new ETFs. The move will boost Ark's lineup from eight ETFs to a total of 15. The Fidelity products offer fees of 18 basis points to 28 basis points, compared with an average fee of around 63 basis points for actively managed ETFs, according to Bryan Armour, mutual fund analyst at Morningstar. "These are very, very substantial reductions, and the new fees are very low," said Armour.

Persons: John Hooson, Harriman, Bryan Armour, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Deepa Babington Organizations: Fidelity, Morningstar, Invest, 21Shares, Brown, Thomson

Moody's is the last of the three major rating agencies to maintain a top rating for the U.S. government. Fitch changed its rating from triple-A to AA+ in August, joining S&P which has had an AA+ rating since 2011. “While the statement by Moody’s maintains the United States’ AAA rating, we disagree with the shift to a negative outlook. The sharp rise in Treasury yields "has increased pre-existing pressure on US debt affordability," Moody's said. “Moody’s just downgraded our credit rating outlook to negative because of our out-of-control government spending and deficits," hardline Republican Representative Andy Harris said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Joe Biden's, Fitch, Moody's, Karine Jean, Pierre, Moody’s, Wally Adeyemo, Adeyemo, Biden, Quincy Krosby, Donald Trump, Mike Johnson, “ Moody’s, Andy Harris, ”, Richard Rohan Francis, Davide Barbuscia, Andrea Shalal, David Morgan, Caroline Valetkevitch, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Shilpi Majumdar, Shounak Dasgupta, David Gregorio, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, . House, U.S ., Aaa, White, Republican, States ’ AAA, Treasury, Reserve, LPL, New York Times, Republicans, Democratic, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, American, Siena, Nevada , Georgia, Arizona , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Trump, Wisconsin

☆ Investors wary of lingering Treasury volatility as US stocks rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - A still-jittery bond market is clouding the outlook for a rally in U.S. stocks, analysts tracking measures of market volatility said. At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index, (.VIX), which measures expectations for stock gyrations, has fallen to a seven-week low of 14.13. That could be a problem if Treasury yields - which move inversely to bond prices - resume a climb that has pressured stocks since the summer. A significant drop in Treasury market volatility would be great news for stock market bulls, Purves said.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Stocks, Alex Kosoglyadov, Michael Purves, Purves, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Paul Simao Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Treasury, Equity, Nomura, Capital, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A hawkish lean from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell chilled a recent rebound in stocks and bonds, with some investors suggesting the central bank was pushing back against loosening financial conditions. Some investors said Powell may have been leaning against a recent loosening of financial conditions that has come as yields have tumbled in recent weeks. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions - factors that reflect the availability of funding in an economy - was on display in last week's 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth-biggest weekly drop since 1990. "If their concept is to have tighter financial conditions, they can’t really let those yields go down. "The rally of the markets both in equity and fixed income unwound the financial conditions tightening to a large degree," Desai said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Powell …, Spencer Hakimian, Sonal Desai, Franklin, Desai, Vassili Serebriakov, Jeffrey Roach, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Allianz Investment Management, Goldman, Tolou Capital Management, UBS, Investors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, New York

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Bargain or trap? US bank stock outlook hinges on Fed's path
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Bank stocks are at an all-time low compared with the S&P 500 based on relative prices, according to data from BofA Global Research. One key factor for bank stocks is whether the Federal Reserve is close to wrapping up a monetary tightening cycle that has brought the highest U.S. interest rates in decades. Yet signs the Fed may keep rates around current levels through most of next year have weighed on bank stocks. This month, analysts at BofA Global Research said investors should “selectively” add exposure to bank stocks in anticipation of an interest rate peak. Overall, about 61% of all outstanding mortgages have an interest rate below 4%, according to the Apollo Group, leaving consumers little incentive to refinance or move.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Quincy Krosby, Bill Gross, Neville Javeri, Goldman Sachs, Jeff Muhlenkamp, David Randall, Bansari Mayur, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank, BofA Global Research, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fund, Allspring Global Investments, Fifth Third Bancorp, Investors, Apollo Group, financials, Fed, Muhlenkamp & Company, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Silicon

☆ Falling Treasury yields could turn Fed hawkish if financial conditions ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Falling Treasury yields helped launch an explosive rebound in stocks and lifted U.S. government bonds from 16-year lows. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions could be seen in last week’s 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth biggest weekly drop since 1990. Policymakers have largely refrained from verbally pushing back on the easing in financial conditions during a flurry of appearances by policymakers this week. Analysts at TD Securities, however, believe further easing in Treasury yields will eventually become a "double-edged sword." To be sure, not every scenario sees the Fed in a higher-for-longer posture if Treasury yields continue falling.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Brian Jacobsen, Jacobsen, CME's, Sameer Samana, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Goldman, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, International Monetary Fund, TD Securities, Fed, Wells, Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, United States, China, Samana, U.S

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